Antiques in prosperous times, gold in troubled times.
In the inherent concept of the world, gold is synonymous with absolute value. However, the author believes that gold will be worthless in the future! Why do you say that?
First of all, we need to understand gold first, because gold has the characteristics of low melting point, low hardness and extremely strong stability. In the ancient society with weak production and processing capabilities, compared with other common metals, it deservedly became the top material in the precious metal currency of ancient society because of its large reserves and easy processing.
Gold can be said to be a very special existence in human society.
Humans have used gold as burial objects since 6,000 years ago. After World War II, the global financial system was tied to gold. Now, although gold is no longer used as currency, it can be used for investment, jewelry, circuit boards, and dental implants. Whether it is 2024 BC or 2024 AD, no matter how complicated the financial market is, everyone still thinks of buying gold as soon as there is any wind and grass movement.
This is why Marx said: "Money is not naturally gold or silver, but gold and silver are naturally money."
However, how did silver, which was once so powerful in the world, fall from the altar? Is it just because of its large stock? Is it inconvenient to carry? I don't think so! It seems that some powerful organization has promoted the reform of currency, allowing gold to quietly ascend the throne! Since the role of silver in the monetary system has plummeted.
Throughout the ancient society, gold, as the top precious metal currency material, has never become a real circulating currency, but exists as a credit reserve certificate. In this regard, it is not even as good as copper and silver! The circulating currency in ancient my country has always been copper coins, and a small amount of silver ingots are used for large transactions. Gold can only be used symbolically among the top dignitaries. It should be noted that it was a major illegal act for civilians to hold gold at that time. In ancient Europe, the situation was roughly similar.
In addition, there is one more strange thing, that is, in the long ancient society, there seems to be a long-term lack of authoritative exchange ratios between gold, silver, and copper. Whether in my country or Europe, how much silver is exchanged for one tael of gold is completely random. Fortunately, the holders of gold at that time were the dignitaries of various countries, so when they traded gold, they could always rely on their own strength to negotiate a relatively reasonable price that was acceptable to both parties. Sadly, the common people in ancient society tried to preserve their value by holding gold! From this logic, in ancient society, gold did not have the general value preservation attribute.
Later, the great Newton created the gold standard system, and the British Empire assumed the role of a stable exchanger of gold. From this moment on, gold had a relatively stable and real purchasing power. Later, Britain abandoned this system in 1931, and the United States continued to use the British system until 1944, which lasted until 1971, providing stable exchange for other governments. Although ordinary people could not exchange directly during this period, the official stable exchange price could continue to provide people with imagination, making them think that gold still had real purchasing power. The stable exchange of gold lasted for a total of 254 years, which was enough to brainwash people all over the world and make people believe that gold had extremely stable purchasing power.
You must know that ordinary people have no idea what real wealth is. They completely fail to understand the fact that gold is highly dependent on the credit guarantee provided by the national government to have real circulation ability. They think that gold is naturally endowed with strong purchasing power, and they firmly believe that as long as they hold gold, they can fully preserve its value. However, in fact, the largest buyer of international gold in the past two decades, and also the only stable buyer, is China, followed by India, where demand fluctuates greatly. As for European and American countries, both the government and the private sector have no interest in gold.
Let's take a look at the data of various countries. The US government's gold reserves have been stable at 8,100 tons since the 1980s and have not changed until today. Germany's has been maintained at 3,400 tons for a long time, and Japan's is about 760 tons. No matter how much new gold supply there is each year, they simply don't bother to increase their gold reserves. Only China is full of interest in increasing its gold reserves. In 1999, my country's gold reserves were 359 tons, and by the end of 2022, they had risen to 2010.53 tons.
In 2022, the world produced 3,628 tons of gold and consumed a total of 3,013 tons. China consumed 824.9 tons, accounting for an astonishing 27.38%. India, which is in a state of national ignorance, consumed 774 tons of gold, accounting for 25.69%. China and India account for more than half of the global gold market. Of the 824.9 tons of gold consumed by China in 2022, 50% was used to make jewelry for the people, and 30% was used by Chinese financial institutions as so-called gold reserves. As for industrial production, only 88.48 tons were consumed, accounting for a pitiful proportion. You must know that it is difficult to cash out the gold bars that the people use as gold jewelry or even directly purchase. The bank will directly refuse to accept them on the grounds that they cannot be identified. If you have to cash out, you can basically only sell them to pawnshops at a discounted price. And the so-called gold reserves in the hands of Chinese financial institutions, which are in thousands of tons, how do they plan to cash out when the crisis comes? Sell it to the United States? The gold exchange commitment has been cancelled long ago, and the United States doesn't want it at all now. Sell it to the Chinese people? When the crisis comes, everyone is a seller of gold, so who is the ultimate buyer? There may be no real buyer!
People think that something that is a currency must have a buyer to have circulation value. Gold once had circulation value provided by the two ultimate buyers, Britain and the United States, but now it has lost its two largest buyers, and there is no value to speak of, it is just a commodity.
Gold is undoubtedly the king of the last era, but what about the next era? What is "gold" in the information technology era?
Satoshi Nakamoto said: "Bitcoin welcomes you!"
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