In the long run, the rise of Bitcoin is actually facing a risk that has recently become a hot topic in the stock market, but most cryptocurrency investors may not have paid attention to: quantum computing. This emerging technology has attracted attention from all walks of life after Google announced this month that its new Willow quantum computing chip has made a breakthrough. After Willow's release, Google's stock price immediately soared, with a 10% increase within two days. The price of Bitcoin fell in response, dropping by 6% at its lowest point.
In 2019, Google used a 54 bit quantum computer called Sycamore to demonstrate "quantum superiority," which means that quantum computers have exponential computing power over classical computers. At that time, Google completed a computing task that would take a classic computer ten thousand years to complete in 200 seconds. And this time, Willow further widened the theoretical computing power gap to astronomical levels in the computing power test. Willow completed the calculation task in 5 minutes this time. According to Google, Willow can exponentially reduce errors and solve the key challenge of quantum error correction that has been studied in this field for nearly 30 years. Even the fastest supercomputer today would take "10 ^ 25" years to complete this calculation - a number far beyond the age of the universe.
Hartmut Neven, founder of Google's quantum AI division, stated in his blog that Willow's performance in crushing computing power is too exaggerated, as if borrowing computing power from parallel universes. The super strong computing power theoretically inherent in quantum computers, once applied in general computer scenarios, brings enormous imagination: all encryption algorithms, all scenarios sensitive to computing power such as cryptocurrency AI.They will all change into unforeseeable forms.
Introduction to Quantum Technology
The basic unit of a computer is the "bit". The bits of classical computers are macroscopic. For example, the on and off of a circuit represent two states, 1 and 0, respectively, including optical signals, as well as sectors and storage units of the disk, all of which are the same.
Their performance at the macro level is highly deterministic. Even on the most advanced integrated circuits, transistors with gate sizes of only a dozen nanometers can withstand external interference due to the flow of billions of electrons inside when turned on.
The "bits" of a quantum calculator are composed of microscopic quantum particles. The state of a single quantum is highly uncertain, that is, it is in a "superposition state", and simply measuring its state may also lead to a change in state - similar to the "uncertainty principle" in the field of quantum mechanics.
The fundamental advantage of quantum computing also lies in this. Because it is in a "superposition state", its computing power improvement is not simply based on how high the clock frequency is, but on parallel computing using the characteristics of quantum mechanics, which is a completely different computing mode from classical computers.
Due to the instability of quantum bits, quantum computers often need to operate in a highly controlled environment to reduce errors. Google had previously encapsulated quantum computers in a sealed metal container, with an internal temperature of only 10 millikelvin (one percent of 1 Kelvin), close to absolute zero. Some researchers also suggest that because qubits are subject to interference from cosmic rays, computers should be placed underground or in caves to reduce interference. These methods are effective, but not enough to eliminate errors.
In fact, classical computers can also encounter errors.
In the past, the main solution was to add bits as "redundant bits" to achieve information verification and correction. This approach is ubiquitous from the hardware layer, communication protocol layer, and software layer of computers.
But for quantum computers, adding bits is very difficult because you cannot directly measure whether there are errors in the quantum bits. Adding bits may mean "correcting unreliable bits with unreliable bits", and the final result is still unreliable.
The method adopted by Google is to perform error correction through a "gridded" arrangement. Willow used a 7X7 grid layout, with 49 quanta as data bits and an additional 48 quanta for measurement. In this way, Google has "broken through the balance point of error correction", which means that by increasing the number of bits, errors can be reduced.
This is a major breakthrough since computer scientist Peter Shor proposed the concept of "quantum error correction" in 1995. According to a paper published by Google, if quantum bits are further increased in the future, the error rate will exponentially decrease to the order of 10 ^ -10. This depicts a more promising future for quantum computing.
Can I still keep my Bitcoin?
It is not difficult to understand that if the astronomical computing power of quantum computers is applied to the field of general computing, all previous standards for measuring computing power will become invalid.
The "mining" output of Bitcoin will enter a new era, and the entire cryptocurrency production capacity will be completely redistributed. Even the private keys of current encrypted wallets are at risk of being cracked.
As early as 2019, after Google proved the "quantum superiority", some researchers estimated that a chip with 13 million qubits could crack the private key encryption of a Bitcoin wallet in just one day.
In fact, not only Bitcoin, but also the potential astronomical computing power of quantum computers will threaten all current encryption systems, and almost all keys may be subject to brute force cracking. If quantum computers really become a reality, it means that all encryption systems need to undergo corresponding adversarial upgrades - yes, anti quantum cryptography is also developing rapidly.
In the field of cryptocurrency, for example, the most commonly used encryption method currently involves very large numbers called "public keys", where the public key is a multiple of two large prime numbers. By combining these two prime numbers, a so-called 'private key' can be generated. Data can be encoded using a public key and decoded using a private key. At present, cryptocurrency users keep their private keys confidential, but their public keys can be released or shared with the outside world. The advantage of this method is that standard computers need to spend a lot of time deriving the private key from the public key, because "factorization" - finding prime numbers that can multiply to obtain the public key - is very difficult. But quantum computing will make factoring easier. In 1994, an American mathematician designed an algorithm that, with a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, could "factorize" massive numbers in just a few minutes. From a cryptographic perspective, this breakthrough will not only threaten Bitcoin, but also traditional finance, as many online banking systems use variants of public key encryption technology. But security experts warn that Bitcoin may be a particularly tempting target for quantum hackers.
Of course, Bitcoin will become a target of crazy attacks. Banks will have certain regulatory, defense mechanisms, and the ability to protect customers, while Bitcoin is almost like the 'Wild West'. If your Bitcoin is stolen, your wallet will not compensate you. Although hackers have stolen Bitcoin in the past, their attacks typically involve unauthorized access to cryptocurrency exchanges. Quantum computing attacks will be more covert as they will raise doubts about the security of the entire Bitcoin network, not just a few poorly secured cryptocurrency exchanges. Once quantum computers become powerful enough, all bitcoins will ultimately face risks. Some Bitcoin repositories are particularly susceptible to the influence of quantum hackers. For example, in the early days of Bitcoin's birth, it was stored in publicly key exposed addresses, including approximately one million bitcoins believed to belong to the mysterious creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. According to Galaxy Digital, approximately 1.72 million bitcoins (worth over $160 billion at current prices) were stored in this type of address, which was gradually phased out later on.
Many cryptocurrency executives have previously stated that Bitcoin can ensure its security in the future by adopting new encryption methods that cannot be easily cracked by quantum computers, but such a thorough reform may take several years. The bigger trouble is that due to the decentralized nature of Bitcoin, changing its technology requires a broad consensus among people around the world who maintain its network - similar upgrades in the past have been progressing slowly and controversial.
Even if the crypto community ultimately reaches an agreement on how to provide quantum hacking protection for Bitcoin, there is another obstacle: existing Bitcoin needs to be transferred to addresses that can resist quantum computing. Every individual or enterprise holding Bitcoin needs to perform such a transfer, otherwise it may be stolen by quantum hackers.
A potentially fatal risk behind the development of quantum computing technology in the cryptocurrency market, such as Bitcoin, is that if this technology is applied to hacker attacks, thieves may be able to easily steal Bitcoin from supposedly secure digital wallets, leading to a sharp drop in coin prices.
Related researchers have stated that quantum computing devices powerful enough to crack Bitcoin may still take ten years or more to truly emerge. However, unless the Bitcoin developer community can further upgrade its encryption technology, the advancement of quantum technology will pose long-term risks to Bitcoin.
According to a 2022 study by a research institute, if Bitcoin were to be attacked by quantum hackers, it would cause over $3 trillion in losses to cryptocurrency and other markets, and trigger a deep economic recession. Since the release of this research report, the potential losses caused by quantum hackers have continued to expand, as Bitcoin has climbed to around $100000 and gradually become a mainstream investment asset.
US President elect Trump has also pledged to establish a strategic reserve for government held Bitcoin, calling it the "Digital Knox Fort" - Knox Fort is the most important military training base for US armored forces, and the Federal Reserve's treasury is also located here. However, quantum computing technology may allow hackers to easily raid this "Digital Knox Castle"... In standard computers, all data is fundamentally represented in binary 0 or 1, while quantum computers are different in that they utilize the odd properties of subatomic particles to represent data in "qubits", which can exist in a continuous state of mixed 0 and 1. This enables quantum computers to quickly complete tasks that standard computers would take a human lifetime or more to solve. These tasks may include developing new drugs, predicting weather, or cracking encryption technologies used to protect sensitive data.
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